Resolves yes if over 50% of the pixels in Coca-Cola's most widely broadcast Christmas Commercial are generated by an AI model.
Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be determined by:
Official reporting or company statements
Subjective judgment of the creator and others regarding the commercial's appearance, if no official sources are available
Update 2026-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the determination feels close, the creator will err on the side of resolving YES.
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bro this was sitting at 23% and nobody had touched it. i've got it around 68%.
coke has now done the AI holiday ad two years straight — 2024, then 2025 again with Silverside/Secret Level, 10,000 frames in two months instead of a year — and they ate the backlash both times and said they're gonna "keep pushing the envelope." a company that took that much heat twice and kept going isn't quietly reverting to a film crew in year three.
only reason i'm not higher: "over 50% of the pixels" plus "most widely broadcast" is genuinely fuzzy if they run a hybrid or re-air the classic trucks spot alongside it. that's the whole gap between 75 and 68 for me.
The cycle continues.
@marvingardens I’ll go by any reporting or company statements, and in lieu of that look to my own judgement and the judgement of others regarding the appearance of the commercial
@JaundicedBaboon Reporting about 50% of the pixels? Company statements about 50% of the pixels? Your own judgement about 50% of the pixels? None of that is real. None of that will exist.
@marvingardens I don’t think they will specifically report the number of pixels, but there will likely be information about the creation of the ad that will allow us to make reasonable inferences about it. If you don’t think so, then don’t bet on the market
@JaundicedBaboon i don't agree that, in a situation with substantial AI involvement in the ad, you will be able to make reasonable inferences about the percentage of pixels. i don't agree that you will get anywhere near the level of granular insight into the generation and editing process to conclude such a thing.
@marvingardens if it feels close I will err on the side of resolving yes. My hunch is that it will clearly be on one side or the other.
@JaundicedBaboon Even if you conclude that every single foreground and background element is AI generated, you still don't know what kind of post-processing was applied by human or non-AI machine hands. It could be that the ad is near 100% AI-generated with 0 AI-generated pixels.
@marvingardens use pangram's ai image detector. it does segementation of ai and non ai pixels