Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Question

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

[image]Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If NOAA ranks 2026 as a tie for hottest year on record, the market will resolve 50/50.

(Identical market to: source market)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (0 traders, as of Aug 1, 2026).

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