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MANIFOLD
Who will have the highest sharpe ratio by June 20th 8 PM CEST [ADD ANSWERS] (2026)
2
Ṁ100Ṁ109
Jun 20
42%
ChristopherRandles
24%
Dagonet
23%
Mochi
10%
realTomBayes

The deadline is market close time.

Sharpe ratio will be determined by Manifolds Market sharpe ratio calculator on someone’s profile. I will look at it at between market close time and market close time + 30 minutes. All options can resolve no if someone links an account that has a higher sharpe ratio. Failing to do so within 30 minutes of the market close time (any time before market close time counts too obviously) will not get me to re-resolve the market because we don’t have access to historical sharpe ratios.

To prevent abuse:

  • Only profiles that have generated 1000 in profit count. By June 20th.

  • Only profiles that traded on >100 markets count. By June 20th.

  • Only profiles that were created before this market count.

Clarifications:

  • Bots count.

  • Sharpe ratio manipulations such as creating a market, betting NO with one account, YES another to artificially increase your sharpe ratio will get the account ineligible for this market. I will try to be fair if someone shows proof that an account shouldn’t be able to participate. Mods can be asked to intervene if you don’t agree with my resolution.

  • The following sharpe ratio manipulation: ‘stopping trading altogether to lower your own sharpe ratio’ is allowed.

  • Inactive users are allowed - there is no requirement that users be currently active to qualify for consideration.

  • If you have an alt account, we will not be summing or combining both accounts sharpe ratios. For example Mochi has two bot accounts. All three accounts could be the highest sharpest ratio user, but there is no combining the three accounts PnL & volatilities.

I will be betting on this market even if you add an answer for my account. I’m sorry if I vote no on a submarket that’s you.

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