Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.

• Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

  • A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.

Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.