Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Question

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/3648/)(Identical market to: source market)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (0 traders, as of Aug 1, 2026).

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