Elbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)
💎
Premium
96
Ṁ53k
2026
91%
Other holy knights beside Garling face reveal (at least one)
90%
Usopp powerup (haki or new weapon)
81%
Luffy finds out that the Bartolomeo Pirates were destroyed by Shanks's crew
74%
Man marked by flames is revealed
68%
Shanks backstory with Garling involved
64%
Vivi rejoins the crew
63%
Dragon finally makes a move
31%
Imu face reveal
30%
Cross guild arrives on Elbaf
19%
Kidd washes up on the shore and is seen in the arc
16%
Shanks's crew do a davy back fight with the strawhats
11%
Big Mom returns (must be present in-person)
Resolved
YES
Loki face reveal

Answers will resolve as they occur and by the end of the elbaf arc, any events that don't occur will resolve to "No"

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
reposted 2mo

Upgraded to premium

2mo

Kidd washing up on shore is such a weird specific answer. What if, the next time he is seen, he is already on land? Would it be a loss if he wasnt "washing up on shore"

@UltimateAce he has to either mention washing up on shore sometime or a flashback has to show him washing up on shore for it to resolve yes IF he's already on land the next time we see him.

2mo
2mo

One of these is finally about to resolve. Which one? Find out in the latest upcoming chapter of One Piece!!!

3mo

Would Usopp powerup have resolved yes from Skypiea arc where he aquired dials, like impact dials? Not sure if they would be considered a new weapon or a new tool.

3mo

@AxelAhlqvist Yes, he's combined dials with some of his attacks now with the Kabuto.

bought Ṁ15 YES3mo

bought Ṁ150 YES4mo

man marked by flames is already confirmed to be saul

4mo

@MuhsYemeni will resolve upon verbal confirmation in the manga

bought Ṁ50 YES4mo
3mo

@FROGMANIA Keep riding

3mo

@MuhsYemeni

one-trick pony over here

bought Ṁ25 YES4mo

One must believe

bought Ṁ50 NO4mo

I want to remind everyone that some of these are two-parters- for example "Shanks backstory with Garling involved" will only resolve yes if Shanks backstory is shown AND garling is involved in it.

4mo

If Kidd actually washes up on Elbaph I'm gonna OD on purple stuff

reposted 4mo

Come bet on the endless possibilities in the exciting new arc of one piece. Add your own options as well :)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules