resolved Mar 15

Will there be another major bank run after the failure of the SVB in the US before March 15th?

Resolved

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Jackpredicted NO

Hold on, why did this resolve NO? Isn't Signature Bank a major bank run (it is the 3rd largest bank failure in US history)? It happened after SVB failed and before March 15. And yes, it was closed because of a massive deposit outflow: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/signature-bank-third-biggest-bank-failure-in-us-history.html customers "withdrew more than $10 billion in deposits"

I say this even though I held a bunch of NO.

Mark Ingrahampredicted NO

@jack I believe the question was asked March 12 after that happened.

Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 1%

There's an equation to understand bank assets.

Cash 10% return.

Assets 1% return.

Cash is stock and assets are usually bonds.

Liability costs 1%.

Banks fail when assets are close to Liability and Cash is under 10%.

Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ100 of NO

Probably won't be another run EVER AGAIN. FDIC now insures 100 percent of all deposits everywhere. So no reason to run.

Jackpredicted NO at 4%

@BTE They don't guarantee that. In practice, it's pretty likely, but it's not certain. That lack of certainty is enough to potentially cause a bank run.

Gigacastingpredicted YES at 5%

Sb was raised by Circle et al over the weekend, now closed

Maggie Delanopredicted NO at 5%

@Gigacasting The bank is closed, but this doesn't look like a bank run from what I can tell? It looks like a preemptive measure by regulators

Gigacastingbought Ṁ100 of YES

Matthew Ritter

I have opinions, but it depends on your definition of “major”. There are already photos of a few dozen people lined up outside of various banks, but that’s probably not enough to qualify? But I assume if you meant full bank failure, or you would have just said that. What is the line?