Jannik avatar
resolved Mar 15
Will there be another major bank run after the failure of the SVB in the US before March 15th?

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jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO

Hold on, why did this resolve NO? Isn't Signature Bank a major bank run (it is the 3rd largest bank failure in US history)? It happened after SVB failed and before March 15. And yes, it was closed because of a massive deposit outflow: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/signature-bank-third-biggest-bank-failure-in-us-history.html customers "withdrew more than $10 billion in deposits"

I say this even though I held a bunch of NO.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO

@jack I believe the question was asked March 12 after that happened.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 1%

There's an equation to understand bank assets.

Cash 10% return.

Assets 1% return.

Cash is stock and assets are usually bonds.

Liability costs 1%.

Banks fail when assets are close to Liability and Cash is under 10%.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ100 of NO

Probably won't be another run EVER AGAIN. FDIC now insures 100 percent of all deposits everywhere. So no reason to run.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 4%

@BTE They don't guarantee that. In practice, it's pretty likely, but it's not certain. That lack of certainty is enough to potentially cause a bank run.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingpredicted YES at 5%

Sb was raised by Circle et al over the weekend, now closed

MaggieDelano avatar
Maggie Delanopredicted NO at 5%

@Gigacasting The bank is closed, but this doesn't look like a bank run from what I can tell? It looks like a preemptive measure by regulators

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ100 of YES
MatthewRitter avatar
Matthew Ritter

I have opinions, but it depends on your definition of “major”. There are already photos of a few dozen people lined up outside of various banks, but that’s probably not enough to qualify? But I assume if you meant full bank failure, or you would have just said that. What is the line?

Jannik avatar
Jannikpredicted YES at 26%

@MatthewRitter A bankrun with significant consequences (eg, failure of a bank)