Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
20
10kṀ77242029
38%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will any U.S. Senator or U.S. Representative (regardless of party), or any federal judge, be arrested and held without bail for at least 24 hours, before February 1st, 2029?
Update 2025-04-28 (PST): - The individual must be a current U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative, or federal judge at the time of arrest; former officeholders do not qualify. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the first Congressperson to be arrested protesting Trump?
Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?
11% chance
Will a Trump administration imprison a journalist, a politician, or an "enemy of the state" before the 2026 midterms?
83% chance
2026 Congressional candidate arrested?
47% chance
Will a member of Congress be found liable for Twitter censorship?
14% chance