From the Dutch News:

The Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Aqtau in Kazakhstan yesterday was most probably brought down by Russian air defences. Sources within the Azerbaijani government tell Reuters news agency and Euronews channel. The sources say they are basing themselves on initial investigations into the incident, which killed dozens of people.

The missile was allegedly fired by a Pantsir-S air defence system during a Ukrainian drone attack in the same region. The plane was reportedly mistaken for an enemy aircraft. The missile exploded next to the plane and hit passengers and staff. British aviation security company Osprey Flight Solutions also called it plausible that a Russian missile was the cause of the crash.

Telegram showed images of the plane's tail with holes in it, which appear to have been caused by a missile impact. ‘The images of the tail indicate that something exploded. Just like MH17, but on a smaller scale. If it were a missile, it would be the method to go with it: not hitting the plane directly, but exploding the missile next to it, so that the metal particles of the missile go through the fuselage in dozens of pieces.’

'Russische raket haalde toestel in Kazachstan neer'

@uair01 If we get an official statement from the Azerbaijan investigation confirming this, I will resolve in favor of the Russian missile strike.

@JamesOrr Hi! I'm not proposing this as a resolution. It's too early for that. I'm just collecting data. Should I stop doing that? (Once I've been accused of "spamming" for this.)

@uair01 No, I have no problem with you adding context in the comments. I just wanted to clarify the resolution criteria.

From an interview in the Dutch news:

Well I called a Russian aviation expert in Moscow yesterday - He only wanted to speak to me anonymously - He has also been dealing very intensively about flight MH17 and the shooting down of it - Well this was a kind of re-experience for him because he said - initially he said that he also thought it could have been a swarm of birds that flew into the engine or even smashed through the windows into the cabin - but when he saw the wreckage in the evening with the holes in it and even in the cabin itself there are holes - then he said no this cannot be this can't be birds - shrapnel - then you start adding things up - and it is quite logical that the plane was hit above grozny by anti-aircraft fire - yes above grozny already so in Chechnya - Then it flew a long way to the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan he said they flew on because it couldn't land in grozny because of dense fog - it turned out later that other planes had landed there despite the fog, so it wasn't impossible at all - well then he went to a city in the North Caucasus where they refused to let him land in Markala, the capital of Dagestan also in the North Caucasus - and he chose to turn right and fly across the Caspian Sea - he managed to save that after all - the Russians have not responded - There are quite a few experts who share this opinion as well - Russia initially said it's birds - so he's flown into a Swarm of birds and that can also be heard on the voice recorder that the pilot thinks that - he says that too - You hear something of a thump - something of a bang - Well so it turns out that's probably not the case - It was probably shot off by a pansier - that's a slightly smaller missile - not a very heavy one like for example BUK where MH17 was shot down - so the fact that the pilot thinks This is a Swarm of birds can be explained because it's a slightly less hard hit - the Russians stick to the story that it's birds - they didn't show the fuselage the fuselage of the plane damaged fuselage either - at least not with those holes in it that those shrapnel holes in it - all the state media have refused to show those images - haven't done so - it looks like Russia has something to hold back - and that's also what this aviation expert says - They will lie about it again - They will make up anything - and probably or quite possibly also Ukraine will end up blaming it in one way or another - There will be an investigation now, of course, and if Russia joins in, it will come down to Moscow dragging its feet - dragging its feet in order to let the world forget as much as possible about this accident and to dismiss it as not happening

Azerbeidzjaanse media: Vliegtuig neergehaald door Pantsir-luchtdoelraket

After 24 hours and more market participants joining, I've closed my position.

I do not want to be biased when resolving.

I thought about making such a market but you were much quicker. And you have a good list of options. How did you make it?

@uair01 I searched for a market a soon as the news broke on Twitter, started filling it out, then let the AI do the rest.

Other: gunfire / artillery that is not a missile