What was the main cause of the crash of a DHL Cargo near Vilnius on 25-Nov-2024
8
1kṀ2489resolved Nov 26
100%78%
Pilot error
2%
Windshear or similar adverse weather conditions
3%
Sabotage or terrorism (from non-crew), including explosives in cargo
3%
Deliberate action of crew
3%
Mechanical problem or other technical malfunction
3%
Fuel problem
3%
Engine problem
1.8%
Use of ground-to-air or air-to-air firepower
3%
Cargo load shift
There can be multiple causes, but I will use my best judgement to select the MAIN cause. More specific wins, e.g. if it's a fuel problem due to human error, it will be judged as fuel problem, and "engine problem" wins over "technical malfunction".
Market closes when there is a report (even preliminary report) that without much doubt makes a conclusion on the main cause. If no such report exists after a year, I may extend the closing date.
I will not participate in this market.
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This video mentions pilot error as a likely cause (accidentally turning off hydraulic pumps, leading to slat retraction): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjWXLuAwD4o
I will wait for an official statement