If the Solaris group house disbands before then, I will resolve NO.
Update 2025-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Physical Survival
The market now considers Solaris to have "survived" if there are at least two apartments still in use by Jan 1st, 2025.
Community and Identity
The dissolution of the founder’s house (Sol) and the absence of joint events indicate that the original spirit or community of Solaris has largely faded.
The change in the population—most residents being different from the original members—is also a key factor.
Resolution Outcome
Based on these factors, the creator intends to resolve the market at 33%.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ29 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 |
Did it survive until Jan 1st 2025? In the sense that there are at least two apartments left, yes. Sol, the house of the founder, is no more. But also, we don't do any joint events, and it's rarer and rarer that anyone mentions these houses as part of Solaris. And most of the people living here are different than how it was. I think Solaris mostly not a thing. So I'm going to resolve to 33%.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by James Grugett
@sammakesthings Here's one for the group house I'm in: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-solaris-survive-until-jan-1st?referrer=JamesGrugett