Will Manifold ads reach 10 million mana paid in 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
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predictedYES

Ran a query. The total is M2,085,580 among the relaunched ads.

Getting there, but not quite. I think we'll reach 10 million in 2024!

there can't be much more than 20 mill in the entire ecosystem so far, right?

predictedNO

@Stralor Top 5 all time profit traders have 939+693+353+605+521 portfolio = 3.111 million mana. Say the top 5-20 have an average of 150k, and the top 20-100 have an average of 50k, that's a total of 8.6 million. So 20 million in the entire ecosystem seems like a good estimate.

JamesboughtṀ10YES

@JamesGrugett Hey, James! You work for manifold! Good work! It's a cool nifty site. I've been showing it around to people at EAG London and laughing about my AI challenge markets. Anyway, do you have any insider information you could share here? I wanna promote and am searching for profit opportunities with long-odds!

I need some cash right now, looking for someone to buy ~650 NO shares at 15%

predictedNO

(I legit think the market is overrated and should be at like 1%)

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