This market resolves when reliable sources aligned with global health and charities report that PEPFAR-funded organizations are once again receiving aid money, for at least 50% of their previous budget.

See also: https://manifold.markets/TiredCliche/will-pepfar-funding-be-unfrozen-by

Update 2025-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):

• Funding Source: The aid money must come from the US government.

• Source Flexibility: It does not require funding to be sourced exclusively from USAID.

• Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):

  Calculation Method Clarification:

  • Aggregate Funding: Sum all the money sent to PEPFAR programs rather than evaluating funding on a per-charity or sub-program basis.

  • Threshold Requirement: The aggregate total must be at least 50% of the previous budget.

  • Program Adjustments: Cancellation or changes to smaller sub-programs do not automatically count against the criteria as long as the overall funding meets the threshold.