What day will US Covid deaths peak in February? | Manifold

What day will US Covid deaths peak in February?

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Ṁ1055

resolved Mar 1

Resolved as

14%

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This is a scalar market, which resolves to a percent in the interval [0-100] based on the fraction of the days through February when the day of peak US deaths occurs in February. E.g. If Feb 14th has more deaths than any other day in February, I will resolve to 14 / 28 = 50%. Data source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA Feb 25, 12:30pm: Clarification: This will resolve based on the most deaths in one day, not based on the day with the most 7-day average deaths. See this chart instead: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA Mar 1, 1:11pm: According to Our World in Data, the peak was Feb 4th. I'll be resolving to 4 / 28 = 14%. Thanks for playing!

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The payout at 14% was less than my investment, so I am not correcting this upwards.

The question is about the day with most death, but the link is for 7-day average. The actual day with most deaths was Feb 4.

We're half-way into the month, and we haven't exceeded the Feb 1 peak yet.

It pays out the pool to both yes and no bets, in proportion to the chosen probability and 1 minus it, respectively. It is a little difficult to figure out what your payout would be...

This uses the new PROB resolution, where I can resolve to a probability instead of YES/NO. I will choose the percentage through the month of Feb where the day of most US Covid deaths occurs, make sense?

I'm having a hard time understanding how this actually pays out.

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