What day will US Covid deaths peak in February?
16
100Ṁ1055resolved Mar 1
Resolved as
14%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a scalar market, which resolves to a percent in the interval [0-100] based on the fraction of the days through February when the day of peak US deaths occurs in February.
E.g. If Feb 14th has more deaths than any other day in February, I will resolve to 14 / 28 = 50%.
Data source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
Feb 25, 12:30pm: Clarification: This will resolve based on the most deaths in one day, not based on the day with the most 7-day average deaths. See this chart instead: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA
Mar 1, 1:11pm: According to Our World in Data, the peak was Feb 4th. I'll be resolving to 4 / 28 = 14%. Thanks for playing!
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