What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]
What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]
29
1kṀ4741Jan 1
98.5%
Jimmy Carter dies
84%
An 8.0 magnitude earthquake anywhere on earth
43%
Israel Hamas Ceasefire
5%
Microsoft declare bankruptcy
5%
Weak AGI is achieved as decided by metaculus
Resolved
YESBTC hits 100k
Resolved
YESSORA is released to the public
Resolved
YESTrumps VP is announced
Resolved
YESTikTok bill is passed by the senate
What will happen before GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 is released to the public.
Please add answers I will extend the market if necessary
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When will GPT5 be announced?
When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)
When will GPT 5 be released
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
77% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
86% chance
When GPT-5 will released?
What will be true about GPT-5?
Will there be a GPT 5.5?
31% chance
Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?
69% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?
85% chance
What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
When will GPT5 be announced?
When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)
When will GPT 5 be released
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2025?
77% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
86% chance
When GPT-5 will released?
What will be true about GPT-5?
Will there be a GPT 5.5?
31% chance
Will it be revealed that GPT-5 was used for how GPT-5 will be released?
69% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2025?
85% chance