I think there are widespread expectations among experts that his plans would push it above 2.5%. The question is instead how much of his plans congress lets him get away with, and how much of his plans he actually intends to enact vs talking about theatrically to win the votes of the many people who listen to his words but don't keep track of his actions. https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed
WASHINGTON—Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Ezra Klein:
Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him
[The Ezra Klein Show] Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices! #theEzraKleinShow https://podcastaddict.com/the-ezra-klein-show/episode/178092115
@AmmonLam I do not think the president matters that much, but a recession is quite likely this year and next year, which likely will lead to lower inflation.