Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?
20
95
410
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if this post attains 1,000 or more LessWrong upvotes at some point during 2023. By "upvotes" I mean the score listed at the top right corner of the post (773 at the time of posting), not the total number of votes that were positive.

Mar 9, 4:12pm: Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong karma before 2024? → Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

For reference, no post in the history of LessWrong has >1000 upvotes..

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@NathanNguyen that was true for 800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 200, 100.. at one time

predicted YES

@firstuserhere alignment stuff going mainstream, influx of people to lw, and reading eliezer's post which might feed into the fear, doesn't seem v low probability to me

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