Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will world population reach 8.3 billion before 2028 according to the UN?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ123
2027
79%
chance

### Context

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) routinely tracks and projects global demographic shifts. As debates around global population growth, resource sustainability, and shifting fertility rates intensify across social platforms, this market tracks a major near-term milestone: the world population officially crossing 8.3 billion.

### Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2028, at 00:00 UTC, the United Nations Population Division (or its official real-time data instruments backed by UN DESA) reports or estimates that the global human population has reached or exceeded 8,300,000,000.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2028, provided no such official figure has been published by the UN prior to that date.

### Fine Print & Edge Cases

- Data Source: The primary source for resolution is the official UN Population Division portal (population.un.org).

- Exclusivity: Only official data, revisions, or live counters hosted directly by the UN will count. Third-party aggregators (like Worldometer) do not qualify unless explicitly cited or adopted by the UN's data release.

- Methodology Changes: If the UN updates its historical models or changes its counting methodology before 2028, the market will resolve based on the newly updated metrics published by the UN for that time window.

- Data Discontinuation: In the highly unlikely event that the UN completely ceases to publish population data, the market will resolve based on the official consensus of the U.S. Census Bureau's International Database for the same timeframe. If no consensus can be reached, it will resolve N/A.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!