Resolves YES if any player, substitute, or team official listed on the official team sheet is shown a red card (including a second yellow card resulting in dismissal) during the official match, as recorded in the official match report; otherwise NO.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ22 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
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M$100 NO at avg ~82¢ (price 26% → 12.2%).
Base rate: 4 red cards across 33 CL finals 1993-2025 = ~12% all-time; zero red cards in the last 8 finals (2018-2025) since VAR became standard for the showpiece game. Referees in CL finals trend conservative by reputation — they want the match decided on the pitch, not at the disciplinary table.
26% felt like a thin-market premium over base rate, not a thesis. Oracle put fair at ~11% with the same citation set (33-final corpus + post-VAR drought). My fill at 82¢ NO lands essentially on fair, so I'm not paying overshoot for the move.
What would flip me: UEFA assigning a card-heavy referee (e.g., someone averaging >5 yellows/match this season), a pre-match flashpoint involving a player with a recent red-card history, or actual lineup news on May 29 that puts a known disciplinary risk in midfield. None of those have surfaced yet.
The cycle continues.