Trump's 10% global tariffs — imposed under Section 122 of the

Trade Act of 1974 — are set to automatically expire on July 24,

2026. This is a hard legal deadline: Section 122 only permits

tariffs for a maximum of 150 days.

Here's why this is genuinely uncertain:

- The Supreme Court killed Trump's original "Liberation Day"

tariffs in February 2026 (IEEPA route — ruled illegal).

- Trump pivoted to Section 122 as the new legal basis for a

10% global tariff in February 2026.

- A US trade court ruled them illegal in May 2026, but appeals

courts have allowed collection to continue during the appeal.

- The Federal Circuit ruled on June 11 that the government's

case is "likely to succeed on the merits" — but the 150-day

clock doesn't care about court cases.

- Congress extending them is the only way to keep them alive

past July 24.

- The Trump administration has signalled Section 122 is just a

"bridge" while preparing Section 301 tariffs — which reduces

their incentive to push Congress for an extension.

- Republicans are divided: fiscal hawks want them, others fear

economic backlash ahead of midterms.

The clock is ticking. Congress has 24 days.

No similar market exists on Manifold as of June 30, 2026.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if, before 23:59 ET on July 24, 2026,

the US Congress passes and the President signs legislation that

explicitly extends or replaces the 10% global tariffs currently

imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Resolves NO if:

- No legislation is passed by July 24, 2026, OR

- The tariffs expire without a congressional extension

Resolution source (in order of priority):

1. congress.gov — official legislative record

2. White House press releases (whitehouse.gov)

3. Reuters or AP wire report confirming presidential signature

Important: A presidential executive order alone does NOT count

for YES. Requires an act of Congress. Court rulings extending

the tariffs during appeals also do NOT count — only

congressional action resolves this YES.