Market context: Bloomberg reported that President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. ET or face escalation. The market is not about whether the Bloomberg story is real; it is about whether Iran actually complies with the ultimatum by reopening the strait before the deadline. Bloomberg’s reporting framed the demand as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of navigation, so the market should resolve only on a clear, reported reopening or formal agreement to reopen.

Resolution criteria: YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum. NO if no Bloomberg-confirmed reopening or formal agreement appears by that deadline. Mere negotiations, mediation, ceasefire talk, or “progress” without a reported reopening or formal agreement resolve NO. Use Bloomberg as the primary source for resolution.

EDITED:
Post-deadline reversals: If Bloomberg reports, before 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz or has formally agreed to reopen it in accordance with Trump’s ultimatum, the market resolves YES. A subsequent closure, suspension, breach, or reversal occurring after 8:00 p.m. ET does not change that resolution.

Conversely, an announcement or agreement that only takes effect after the deadline resolves NO unless Bloomberg reports that the Strait was actually reopened, or that a formal binding agreement to reopen had been reached, by the deadline.

YES if, by 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Bloomberg reports either:

the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened to commercial navigation, or

Iran has entered into a formal, binding agreement to reopen it, with the reopening effective immediately or on a specified timetable.

A unilateral statement of intent, temporary passage for one vessel, negotiations, mediation, ceasefire discussion, or unspecified “safe-passage protocol” is insufficient.