At the resolution time of this question, I will spend 2+ hours looking into relevant papers and resolve this market to pay out at the probability I assign to the proposition "ketamine has a larger net negative effect on QALYs, in expectation than alcohol". The dosages to be compared are roughly two doses of 40mg ketamine (nasal adminstration), and 10 units of alcohol consumed once every 10 days.

If this question stays at >=90%, or <=10% for a period of one month, I will resolve this market early and do my literature view at that time.