At the resolution time of this question, I will spend 2+ hours looking into relevant papers and resolve this market to pay out at the probability I assign to the proposition "ketamine has a larger net negative effect on QALYs, in expectation than alcohol". The dosages to be compared are roughly two doses of 40mg ketamine (nasal adminstration), and 10 units of alcohol consumed once every 10 days.
If this question stays at >=90%, or <=10% for a period of one month, I will resolve this market early and do my literature view at that time.
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At this dosage regime, alcohol QALY loss probably primarily arises from some tail events like becoming an alcoholic and drunk driving. High dose ketamine abuse has significant brain matter effects (2 OOMs higher consumption than what we consider) while low dose considered here appears to have no documented side effects. Only a couple of studies looked at long-term effects of ketamine at low doses and found no statistically significant harm. Ketamine has some positive QALY gain for the depressed subset of the population. Some remaining uncertainty given this absence of evidence.