This will be resolved very subjectively by my impression. I will try to mitigate this subjectivity by resolving to multiple responses in cases where I am unsure.
This question will primarily depend on "perceived nationwide rate of behavioral/lifestyle changes resulting from this application". Relevant behavioral changes would include, non-exhaustively:
spending time talking with a romantic companion AI
changing news consumption patterns as a result of widespread AI
additional free time available to commuters using fully autonomous self-driving vehicles
reduced engagement with human sources when defaulting to question-answering AI over wikipedia, Quora, or primary sources
increased travel if speech-to-speech AI make travel more appealing (unlikely to be significant enough at the everyday level)
Major catastrophe caused by AI
Technical AI (e.g. coding, doctor etc.) becomes usable to untrained users.
...
I will also take into account metrics such as "number of headlines on this application", "number of friends who engage with this application", "willingness of users to pay for this application", "magnitude of effect in terms of minutes/day engagement with this application", google search statistics, etc.
I will roughly take a "difference-in-differences" approach to measuring this impact. To clarify what I mean by this consider news: news has a large impact on peoples' opinions. However if all newspaper writers were replaced by AIs, this may not have a large felt impact, since the difference-made-by-news could remain the same. In such a case, I would not resolve this question to "News AI" since the difference-in-differences of this application would be minimal.
Related questions
@PatrickDelaney Or...is, "chatbot / search" considered to be one answer by the market resolver? I see them as separate categories based upon when the market was created in January 2023 and search did not exist yet then in a released state, but ChatGPT did and was the biggest thing in AI news at the time.
Basically, it would be much more interesting to not conflate search and Chatbot given recent events.
@PatrickDelaney I consider chatbots embedded in a search url like Bing.com or Google.com to be covered by AI powered search.
@JacobPfau Cool, thanks I appreciate the clarification. I appreciate you creating this market. By the way, personally I opine it is way too early to tell whether that particular application ends up being the resolved end state. I could see tons more coming out this year as little startups using AI/API's pop up. This does not all necessarily get driven by the large players. Microsoft/Bing and Google/Bard could end up being failures and being shelved. We shall see!
If a huge number of people are impacted, though the impact on their everyday life is minimal, how do you plan to resolve the market?
What I'm asking is basically how important is for the resolution of the market:
1. The scale of the AI-use case (how many people use the AI service/product)
vs
2. The lifestyle change in people who use the AI use case.
Also, do only people count for this or does it matter if for example (though question's timeline doesn't make this likely) there are a huge number of mobile applications generated by AI which affect people's lives, though not directly?
@firstuserhere The "difference-in-differences" discussion was supposed to address this. Number of people impacted will be multiplied by the difference it makes to their behavior and lifestyle. If e.g. chat AI for search changes people's use of google such that they e.g. go to the library less that would be a lifestyle change. If chat AI for search changes people's use of google so that they go to slightly more preferable bike stores on average that would be a negligible lifestyle change. I think people may be overvaluing chat-powered search and personal assistant AI, because of this misunderstanding.
@JacobPfau its a good market. I'm obviously surprised to see QA/oracle at the top, but also wondering why propaganda AI is so low. Perhaps could've been worded it as "personalized". Also, do "video" games include all the games like crossword generator, games like 2048, wordle, etc?
@firstuserhere I intended to include all video games including mobile games. 2048 is a bit more puzzle-y in my mind than video-gamey. If there were some AI-based wordle++ that addicted a lot of people, I'd probably resolve this market to some split between AI apps and video games.
By "AI" I roughly mean systems for which AI tech beyond 2018 levels is needed. Some simple evolutionary algo for e.g. generating crosswords does not count.
Why do so many people think that the thing that was already big and went viral will also be the thing that gets big and goes viral again? Why will chat, presumably chat-gpt go viral again and not some other issue? It seems like people are just going for the most obvious thing because it just happened rather than thinking about a whole year -- 6 months is a lifetime in this stuff.