Is QALY loss from long-term effects of toxoplasma gondii infections greater than 0.1?
9
205
Ṁ81Ṁ170
2030
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"studies estimate that up to 50% of the global population has been exposed to, and may be chronically infected with, T. gondii;" -Wikipedia
Seems like short-term loss is ~0.1 per person. Resolves as YES if there are multiple studies convincingly providing evidence that counterfactual QALY burden (un-medicated) is >0.1 Resolves NO if there are multiple studies convincingly providing evidence that counterfactual QALY burden (un-medicated) is <0.1 Resolves N/A if I believe evidence is insufficient at time of resolution.
There've been some spooky findings about its long-term effects.
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?
55% chance
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
51% chance
Does Toxoplasma gondii make humans more impulsive/fearless/violent?
47% chance
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
19% chance
Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?
25% chance
Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5?
25% chance
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
31% chance
Will there be any year in the 2020s with fewer than 100,000 malaria deaths?
20% chance
Will "years lost due to microplastic load" be lower than "years lost due to air pollution load" by US'ians in the 2020s?
76% chance