Do you think that sense perception of time in humans changes due to aging, such that time appears to pass quicker (less, or less frequent qualia are perceived), and if so, should we discount the moral value of a quality year of life for older people than younger ones.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on a poll of other Manifold users. After the resolution date, a poll will be created asking voters to evaluate the arguments and evidence presented by market participants regarding: (1) whether subjective time perception meaningfully accelerates with age, and (2) whether this phenomenon, if real, provides sufficient moral justification for age-discounting QALYs in healthcare resource allocation. Voters will select which answer best reflects the strongest case made during the market's duration.

Background

QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) are a standard metric in health economics used to evaluate medical interventions and allocate healthcare resources. The question touches on two distinct empirical and normative claims: the "subjective time acceleration" hypothesis—that older people experience time as passing faster due to proportional changes in perception—and the separate ethical question of whether such a phenomenon should influence how we value health outcomes across age groups. Current healthcare systems generally do not age-discount QALYs, treating a year of healthy life as equally valuable regardless of age, though some economists have proposed age-weighting based on other considerations.

Considerations

The resolution depends on traders effectively articulating both the psychological evidence for time perception changes and the philosophical arguments about moral relevance. The empirical claim about time perception is distinct from the normative claim about how healthcare systems should respond—one could accept the psychology while rejecting the moral conclusion, or vice versa. Voters will need to weigh competing frameworks for healthcare justice (utilitarian, egalitarian, prioritarian) when evaluating whether age-based QALY discounting is justified.