What will Sam Altman do by June 1, 2024? (Add answers!)
68
763
3.3k
Jun 2
98.4%
CEO of OpenAI
13%
Court
9%
A non-CEO position at OpenAI
7%
Leads non-capabilities AI org (that is: org not training internal frontier models)
6%
Nothing
5%
Start and lead another AI company
5%
Work primarily in AI VC
4%
Join the Government
2%
Join Google
2%
Run for Governor
2%
Return to Y Combinator
2%
Run for president
2%
Work at Microsoft

Resolves to all answers that seem correct to me on June 1, 2024. Can resolve to multiple options.

Feel free to add additional answers!

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A non-CEO position at OpenAI
bought Ṁ30 A non-CEO position a... YES

Does being appointed to the board count? That's a position at OpenAI that is not CEO, even though he is still CEO.

@JacobJacob would still love clarification here.

bought Ṁ50 A non-CEO position a... YES

@JacobJacob I'm still feeling like this should resolve yes? ChatGPT thinks the role of CEO and board member are separate, for what it's worth:

https://chatgpt.com/share/000ec382-0f1c-414c-9feb-bc080c7ac510

@SemioticRivalry thoughts, since you just bought NO?

@DanMan314 I don’t think so, because I feel this answer implies (and I believe people were betting this way) that he’s NOT the CEO but rather a different position

@benshindel That would be a little strange to me? None of the other answers require him to drop out of his position as OpenAI CEO, I read "non-CEO" as just specifying that him already being CEO doesn't count.

@DanMan314 I mean, it’s literally phrased as a “non-CEO” position

This market was also made when his future at OpenAi was in question, so it makes sense to be like “okay well maybe they’ll fire him as CEO but will let him stay at OpenAI in another role”. I think that was the intent of the answer and also clearly how ppl have been betting on it, judging from it being at 15%

@benshindel I mean I see the ambiguity, but non-ceo modifies the position being referred to, not any other hypothetical positions he holds. It’s the literal reading, but it’s also the reading that first occurred to me, although apparently not everyone else.

Leads non-capabilities AI org (that is: org not training internal frontier models)

would a hardware ai-acceleration company count as non-capabilities AI org? in this hypothetical it would not be training internal frontier models, but pushing AI capabilities through hardware improvements alone (explicitely for AI)

My version which will just resolve to one top answer, and I moderate the submissions. https://manifold.markets/Ernie/what-will-sam-altman-be-doing-on-fe

Wow, we created them at the same time! good thinking

bought Ṁ30 of Nothing NO

@Ernie always nice driving some arbitrage incentives

Court

By this I mean he will be a defendant in a court case.