Resolves to all answers that seem correct to me on June 1, 2024. Can resolve to multiple options.
Feel free to add additional answers!
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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@JacobJacob I'm still feeling like this should resolve yes? ChatGPT thinks the role of CEO and board member are separate, for what it's worth:
https://chatgpt.com/share/000ec382-0f1c-414c-9feb-bc080c7ac510
@DanMan314 I don’t think so, because I feel this answer implies (and I believe people were betting this way) that he’s NOT the CEO but rather a different position
@benshindel That would be a little strange to me? None of the other answers require him to drop out of his position as OpenAI CEO, I read "non-CEO" as just specifying that him already being CEO doesn't count.
@DanMan314 I mean, it’s literally phrased as a “non-CEO” position
This market was also made when his future at OpenAi was in question, so it makes sense to be like “okay well maybe they’ll fire him as CEO but will let him stay at OpenAI in another role”. I think that was the intent of the answer and also clearly how ppl have been betting on it, judging from it being at 15%
@benshindel I mean I see the ambiguity, but non-ceo modifies the position being referred to, not any other hypothetical positions he holds. It’s the literal reading, but it’s also the reading that first occurred to me, although apparently not everyone else.
My version which will just resolve to one top answer, and I moderate the submissions. https://manifold.markets/Ernie/what-will-sam-altman-be-doing-on-fe