By the two-year anniversary of its release, will Kerbal Space Program 2 have more active players than KSP 1?

Gaming•Kerbal Space Program

332

Ṁ19K

Ṁ350

2025

31%

chance

ALL

Kerbal Space Program 2 launched into early access on 24th February 2023. However, so far the game has recieved mixed reviews because it launched in a very buggy state, missing features that are already present in the original Kerbal Space Program. Currently, the active playerbase of KSP 1 as reported by SteamDB is much higher than for KSP 2:

But, as KSP recieves ongoing patches, updates, and expansions, maybe this situation will turn around! Will KSP 2 have a larger active playerbase during early 2025, almost two years after the game's initial early-access release?

To resolve this market, I will consult this SteamDB comparision chart which graphs the active playerbases of both games. If KSP 2 has more active players than KSP 1 for the majority of datapoints in the 30 days preceeding Feb 24, 2025, then this market will resolve "YES".

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ34 of YES

Left a large-ish limit order at the midpoint of the recent swings if anyone wants to take me up on it.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Feeling optimistic in the wake of the recent "For Science" update!

bought Ṁ30 of NO

predicts NO

It's kind of sad that releasing KSP2 halved the interest in KSP1. Used to be a steady 5k players.

@Mqrius Yeah, it would definitely be a pretty depressing market resolution if this ends up technically going YES only because both games have declined far below the original level of KSP 1 engagement...

Really hoping that this game eventually manages to pull things around, but I doubt they actually will; hence this market to help keep my hopes calibrated.

sold Ṁ32 of NO

@JacksonWagner fwiw I've heard good things of the recent patch, apparently playability is improved a lot (way higher framerate) and is gonna get even better. Haven't tried it myself yet but I will once I lose interest in my current games.