Resolves yes if Wagner group still maintains some form of operations in the Middle East/Africa/Russia/Eastern Europe etc. resolves no if Wagner group dissolves/is incorporated by the Russian millitary.
Related questions
There were only 20,000 Wagner at the groups largest. Probably more like 10,000 max now. There is simply no reason to remain Wagner except to please the YES bettors in these markets. https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/cnn-military-source-says-ukraine-234709323.html
@DavidI Well I was trying to stem my losses. But fine I guess I will cancel them.
@BTE even if 10000 is the actual number of wagner.. that is still 10000 wagner fighters that exist = wagner group still exists
In Wagner Group’s biggest African base, Russia to control mercenaries - The Washington Post (archive.ph)
new wapo article from sept 18 (today)
archived so no paywall
@higherLEVELING Irrelevant. Wagner was ordered to give up their African business. Many say that is the reason Progozhin was killed.
@BTE seems very relevant. seems like business as usual. nothing has changed. If they had referred to them as former Wagner, and if they weren't in charge of things there, it would still be relevant. it would just be more in your favour. But, reading the article, it sounds like Wagner still exists.
very relevent. this will probably still exist in the new year.
@higherLEVELING Why do you think this article is saying they will probably still be in charge then? I read it as indicating surprise that they are still in control. Plus why are so many Wagner members looking for other jobs if the group is still operating as it was before?
@BTE Im just in the mindset that this will take longer than expected and there will still be a bunch of them that are still identified as wagner going into the new year.
@BTE Sorry to say but you don't know what you are talking about. The article you posted is about convict cannon fodder used for the battle in Bakhmut not the elite soldiers that can do work in Africa. These guys would have never had a future with Wagner and they are not professional soldiers, they were only recruited last winter from prisons.
Time is not in your favour, every day that passes means a day less to begin this giant task of dismanteling a complex organisation while keeping daily operations running as usual. How is that ever going to happen? In 3 months?
I guess they can change their name and I can lose this bet on a technicality, that's the biggest risk I see here. Which if it happens I guess I'm screwed.
I didn't discuss much here because I just wanted to take advantage of the huge discount but I am overinvested in this topic now, almost 30% of my net worth in the Wagner markets and I don't have much mana left so I guess there is no more point in not saying much.
@WieDan I think you are the one who doesn’t know what they are talking about. Wagner is a corporation that can be dissolved by the Russian state in less than a minute with the order of a single person. There is no protection against the state declaring them all rogue combatants if they don’t sign a contract with the GRU. It’s unclear to me that there is even an advantage to remaining Wagner now that they are being declared a terrorist organization in the West which will make it harder for governments anywhere to contract them. It’s in Wagner’s best interests to change their name at least. Like they couldn’t even get the ammunition they needed when Prigozhin was alive, why is it gonna be any different now?
If the group was to change its name, but fundamentally operate the same, would that be a payout for NO?
Wagner was mentioned in SoW's report today:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-13-2023
Seems like Russia will have a bit of trouble getting rid of Wagner.
@ThomasS My takeaway is that the MoD is in the process of subsuming Wagner.
@WieDan Why? The leadership is already dead. They need Wagner to follow orders. Why not just kill them if they don’t fall in line soon?
the linked isw report says:
It's going to be too much work to eliminate them all. so they'll probably just let whatever is left live and just keep an eye on em. making sure wagner doesnt get too large.
@higherLEVELING the group only had like 20,000 people to begin with. And they can't get paid for anything they do unless without the state's consent. I think the idea that Wagner can exist as Wagner without Prigozhin is silly. He was Wagner and it died with him. Just a slightly slower death.
