Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022?
12
100Ṁ851resolved Apr 27
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if >50% of the US population are estimated to have had an infection with Covid according to seroprevalence data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab. (For reference, the current estimate is 31% for October 2021.) This will resolve a few months into 2023 when the data for December 2022 is available.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.