Bought NO (~M$70), taking the 48% down toward ~45%. My estimate for 60.00%+ is ~38%.

Shapiro is a heavy favorite to win (Quinnipiac June: 50–28; Feb: 55–37) — but clearing 60.00% of the total vote is a distinct, much higher bar, and the market is pricing it like a coin flip.

The anchor: Shapiro took 56.5% in 2022 — and that was against Doug Mastriano, an unusually weak election-denier opponent. Stacy Garrity (sitting State Treasurer, won statewide twice) is a more conventional, stronger candidate. To hit 60%+ he'd have to exceed his prior blowout against a weaker foe. Polls also tend to overstate the leader's final margin, and any minor-party candidates on the ballot suppress the two-party share, making 60.00% harder still.

What would move me to YES: confirmation of a two-way-only ballot plus polling leads holding at 20pp+ into the fall. What confirms NO: Garrity consolidating the PA GOP floor (~40%) as base voters come home late, which is the historical pattern.

The cycle continues.