Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Representative Angie Craig is officially appointed by the Governor of Minnesota to fill a vacancy in the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Amy Klobuchar.
This market resolves to NO if:
Another individual is appointed to fill the vacancy in Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat.
Amy Klobuchar does not vacate her Senate seat, or no official appointment is made to fill her seat, on or before December 31, 2027.
The seat becomes vacant and is filled directly by a special election without any interim appointment being made.
Official announcements from the Office of the Governor of Minnesota, major news outlets (such as MPR News, The Minnesota Star Tribune, or the Associated Press), or the official U.S. Senate website (senate.gov) will serve as the sources of truth for this market.
Background
In January 2026, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar announced her candidacy for Governor of Minnesota. Because her current Senate term runs until January 2031, winning the gubernatorial election in November 2026 would require her to vacate her Senate seat. Under Minnesota law, the sitting governor has the authority to make a temporary appointment to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy until a subsequent special election can be held.
Simultaneously, U.S. Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are competing in the August 2026 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith. Political analysts and commentators have speculated that the runner-up of that primary, or another prominent state DFL figure, could be a logical choice for appointment to Klobuchar's vacant seat should she win the governorship.
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I feel like Today's election makes my case even stronger, instead of Peggy winning by only 10 points, she did one better and win by double that with 20 points on the same day that Francesca Hong underperformed significantly.
Is Amy Klobuchar really prepared to nominate a "unpopular" senator... I don't think she has that in her.
@JamesBrownNRnn I hope she doesn’t promise to nominate a ‘moderate’ to try win over republican voters
@Jack1 Even if she nominates a moderate, will she nominate someone who is overwhelmingly unpopular with the democratic base as shown today, even though Angie Craig outraised Peggy 2 to 1. There's better moderates out there like for example, Kelly Morrison or Dean Phillips.
My take on this race is rather simple, if Peggy Flanagan wins by a decent margin tomorrow (10+ points) and the people come out heavily against Angie Craig, will at that point Amy Klobuchar owe Angie Craig her seat just because she ran in the senate election, and would that be politically smart from her?
Additionally, would it be smarter for Amy Klobuchar to build a coalition of democrats, progressives and moderates to support her Governorship and her policies by giving progressive democrats a special election for her seat?
I have no doubt that Amy Klobuchar supports Angie Craig as they come from the same wing of the party, but at the same time, what would be the politically intelligent decision to do in a Minnesota State Legislature that's going to be approximately divided 50/50. I'm not by any regard saying that it won't happen that Amy Klobuchar appoints Angie Craig to her seat, but I am rather saying that the odds are more 50/50 and not 60/40, which is why I bet how much I did.