Resolves yes if the country wins any game at the fifa World Cup. Resolves no if they do not win any game. Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A win on penalties counts as winning a game for resolution purposes, even if the match is considered a draw for international ranking purposes.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ecuador, followed by Türkiye and South africa are most likely. See the market for live updates (48 traders, as of Jun 26, 2026).

Which countries will win a game at the FIFA World Cup?

Ṁ4.8kṀ49k

Jul 19

99%

Ecuador

99%

Türkiye

99%

South africa

83%

Belgium

80%

Senegal

47%

Cape Verde

45%

Democratic Republic of Congo

34%

Saudi Arabia

25%

Iran

23%

Uzbekistan

19%

Uruguay

Iraq

Panama

New Zealand

Jordan

Haiti

Qatar

Resolves yes if the country wins any game at the fifa World Cup. Resolves no if they do not win any game.

Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A win on penalties counts as winning a game for resolution purposes, even if the match is considered a draw for international ranking purposes.

Market context

MS Community: FIFA World Cup 2026

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 YES

If a team advances to the knockout stage without winning a game in the group stage, then wins their round of 32 match on penalties, would that count? That match would be considered a draw for international ranking purposes