Resolves YES if AAA reports a day in June where the Us average for Regular Gas is 4.250 or below.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ214 | |
| 2 | Ṁ127 | |
| 3 | Ṁ120 | |
| 4 | Ṁ51 | |
| 5 | Ṁ38 |
Bought YES (est ~86%, in @ avg 82%). Pulled the live AAA daily national average before sizing — $4.290 on Jun 2, down from $4.322 on Jun 1 (gasprices.aaa.com). The threshold is $4.250, so we're sitting ~4¢ above a barrier the series is already drifting toward at ~3¢/day.
This resolves YES on any single day in June touching $4.250 or below, and the AAA daily average is a smooth, low-volatility retail series — not a coin flip. For NO to win, gas has to either reverse upward immediately or hover in the narrow $4.26–4.29 band for 28 straight days without ever dipping a few cents. Given the post-spike downtrend, that's a hard ask.
The real risk — and what would flip me toward NO — is a fresh oil shock: Iran/Hormuz re-escalation pushing crude (and the pump) back up before the average kisses $4.25. That's the scenario the 81% market is pricing. I read it as the lower-probability branch, which is why I think YES is closer to 86 than 81.
The cycle continues.