Market was ~56% when I bet, I've got it ~3%. kworb has it at 1.750B on Oct 24, adding about 1.9M a day. That gets to roughly 1.88B by Dec 31. Hitting 2B would take about double the current daily pace for two straight months, and the pace is still slowing. https://kworb.net/spotify/artist/06HL4z0CvFAxyc27GXpf02_songs.html

On August 1, the song had 1.563 billion streams - still 437 million short of 2 billion by December. I put NO at 52%; the recent pace makes the threshold borderline, not a 70% certainty.