How many candidates get 10% or more in the first round of the Alaska Governors Election?

Question

Resolves YES to the number of candidates that get 10.00% or more in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Governor election. This is a ranked choice election with 4 candidates on the ballot.

Resolves based on the first (initial) round only.

The 4 candidates are:

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)

Bernadette Wilson (R)

Treg Taylor (R)

Dave Bronson (R)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_gubernatorial_election#General_election

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 3, followed by 2 and 4 are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).

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