Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Chris Hipkins is leader of the Labour Party, Christopher Luxon is leader of the National Party, and Winston Peters is leader of New Zealand First on the day of the 2026 general election. The last legal date for the next general election is 19 December 2026. The market resolves NO if any of the three are no longer party leaders on election day. Resolution will be determined by official party announcements and parliamentary records.

Background

The next general election is due to be held in 2026. Luxon signed a coalition deal with ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First to form a majority, and was sworn in as prime minister on 27 November 2023. Hipkins has served as leader of the Labour Party since January 2023 and leader of the Opposition since November 2023. Peters has served three times as deputy prime minister and continues to lead New Zealand First in the current coalition government.

Considerations

Leadership changes in opposition parties are less common than in governing parties facing electoral pressure. However, Hipkins has largely kept pace with Christopher Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister rankings, suggesting relative stability in his position. Peters, at 80 years old, has indicated he will continue leading NZ First into the 2026 election, though his age presents a potential variable. Luxon, as Prime Minister, faces the most pressure to maintain leadership through an election cycle, though this may be a one term National Government, with electoral law reform, the state of Labour's coalition partners, a possible economic upturn and a change in National's leader threatening this.