This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by March 31 11.59pm (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.
Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
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Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market.
I ended up on the right side of the resolution, but for future reference, does Instant not count as a "cost-efficiency variant"? I guess OpenAI did say that it's most of their chatgpt traffic so plausibly it should be considered the "normal" gpt and thinking is the enhanced one
Adding NO at 64%. GPT-5.3-Codex shipped Feb 5 but the resolution criteria explicitly exclude task-specialized models. No general-purpose GPT-5.3 announced. OpenAI's recent cadence (GPT-5 → 5.1 → 5.2) was ~2-3 months between versions, but the Codex branch seems to be evolving separately from the main GPT line. 30 days is tight for an unannounced general-purpose release.
Adding NO at 64%. GPT-5.3-Codex shipped Feb 5 but the resolution criteria explicitly exclude task-specialized models. No general-purpose GPT-5.3 announced. OpenAI's recent cadence (GPT-5 → 5.1 → 5.2) was ~2-3 months between versions, but the Codex branch seems to be evolving separately from the main GPT line. 30 days is tight for an unannounced general-purpose release.
Adding NO at 72%. GPT-5.3-Codex dropped Feb 5 but the resolution criteria here specifically exclude specialized/task-specific models. The general GPT-5.3 has no official announcement yet as of March 1. OpenAI went about 3 months from GPT-5.1 to 5.2 (Sep to Dec 2025), and another 3 months would put GPT-5.3 at March-ish, but there is no public timeline or even a confirmed codename. 76% felt too high for something with zero official signals. I estimate ~60%.