Resolves to the percentage of Republicans that vote for Harris, according to CNN exit poll.
Exiit poll here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
In 2020, 6% of Republicans voted for Biden, and 94% for Trump.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
In 2016, 8% of Republicans voted for Clinton, 88% for Trump, and 4% Other/No answer.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
In 2012, 6% of Republicans voted for Obama, 93% for Romney, and 1% Other.
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012
In 2008, 9% of Republicans voted for Obama, 90% for McCain, and 1% Other.
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2008
Resolves end of November to give time for final updates/adjustments to occur, as exit polls revise their numbers often.
1,000
3.00
"Harris is averaging about 6 percent of Republicans’ votes in high-quality polling this month." - The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/campaign-moment/