Resolves to the latest Nate Silver election forecast for Harris on November 5 for the Electoral College forecast, aka who is favored to win the presidency.

Note: this is the Win probability, not the polling average.

Final forecast:

The forecast itself is paywalled(https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model), however you can use this Twitter search query: https://x.com/search?q=%22nate%20silver%22%20min_faves%3A20&src=typed_query&f=live

40-43% means 40% inclusive, 43% exclusive.