Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if Bobi Wine wins the January 15, 2026 presidential election in Uganda, where candidates need at least 50% + 1 of the vote to be elected in the first round. Resolution will be determined by the official results announced by the Electoral Commission of Uganda at https://ec.or.ug/.

Background

Bobi Wine is a 43-year-old pop star-turned-politician challenging 81-year-old President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled the country since 1986. In the 2021 election, Wine secured 35 percent of the vote while Museveni won with 58 percent – his poorest margin of victory since taking power. Wine's National Unity Platform (NUP) party now has the largest number of seats among the opposition in parliament with much of its support coming from working-class communities in urban areas.

Considerations

The 2021 election saw the opposition face up to 3,000 abductions and 54 fatalities, and the 2026 election process has been characterized by intimidation and violence directed against the opposition, with hundreds detained and opposition rallies facing disruption including tear gassing and live rounds. International Crisis Group has assessed that Museveni "with his firm grip on the levers of state power … has re-election all but locked down." Uganda has never experienced a peaceful transfer of power between elected leaders since gaining independence.