At least one revolution around planet earth.
Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Achieving orbital altitude during test flights will be considered as fulfilling the market's resolution criteria, even if a full revolution around Earth was not completed.
1,000
3.00Actually I see there is a contradiction between the description and a comment.
The description says:
At least one revolution around planet earth
Whereas the creator answered a question
Does the almost-orbital Hawaii landing count for this?
With:
yes that would count too
This is contradictory. @IsaacKohane what did you have in mind here?
Looks to me like this market should resolve NA.
@chrisjbillington It achieved orbital altitude: According to GPT4o: Yes, SpaceX's Starship has successfully reached orbital altitude during its test flights. Notably, on March 14, 2024, during its third integrated flight test, Starship achieved orbital velocity and completed a near-orbital trajectory. After stage separation, the upper stage conducted several in-space tests, including a propellant transfer demonstration and payload dispenser test. However, during re-entry, the vehicle experienced excessive roll rates due to clogged roll control valves, leading to the loss of the vehicle at an altitude of around 65 km.
I can go with your overrule if you think achieving orbit implies a full circle. What do you say?
@JFlavius1 Although I think the orbital capabilities of Starship-SuperHeavy have been convincingly demonstrated multiple times, it's the market description above that defined orbit as a full circle:
At least one revolution around planet earth
But since you replied in the comments also that the planned suborbital trajectory to near Hawaii would count, we have a contradiction. People made bets in good faith based on both criteria, so it's not possible to resolve in a way that doesn't conflict with one of the criteria people bet based on.
If questions like this were not possible to NA, I'd say that clarifying comments from the creator that conflict with the criteria in the description in a major way such as this would have to be discounted. But there is no consensus or mod guidelines on how comments vs description should trade off when they conflict, and we do have the option of NAing, so I think it's probably the best outcome (which I see you've just done).
Similar question with different timescales: /OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb