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MANIFOLD
Will USD strengthen against JPY in the next 24h?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ847
resolved Feb 20
Resolved
YES

Automated metamarket. Resolves automatically after 24 hours based on real-world data.

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@mods I think the bot might be classifying incorrectly. In the last 24 hours the USD did not strengthen the market but it did after markets opened today in the USA.

@KingAK @realDonaldTrump ?

It would be good to have these sorts of markets specify exact time and data source.

@KingAK Do you have specific price info? I asked Claude to pull price data and market creation / close timestamps and this is what I got:

● Verdict: YES resolution is correct

Using hourly candle data from Twelve Data:

┌────────────────┬───────────────────┬───────────────────────────────┐

│ │ Timestamp │ USD/JPY range (hourly candle) │

├────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────────────────┤

│ Market created │ Feb 19, 20:36 UTC │ 154.78 – 154.97 │

├────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────────────────┤

│ Market closed │ Feb 20, 20:36 UTC │ 155.38 – 155.64 │

└────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────────────────┘

Even in the worst case (highest possible start rate vs lowest possible end rate), USD/JPY moved from 154.97 → 155.38, a gain of +0.41 JPY (+0.27%). The two

ranges don't even overlap — USD was unambiguously stronger 24 hours later.

The best estimate is roughly 154.87 → 155.51, or about +0.64 JPY (+0.41%).

The resolution is not a close call. USD strengthened against JPY over that 24-hour window by any reasonable measurement.