Background The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) is currently in a labor dispute with port operators over automation. President-elect Trump has publicly backed the ILA's position against automation at U.S. ports, arguing that the cost savings from automation don't justify the impact on American workers. However, the negotiations between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) involve multiple complex issues including job security, healthcare benefits, and container royalties.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if by March 31, 2024 (or earlier):

1. Trump makes a formal agreement or takes concrete action that effectively prevents automation at ILA-represented ports, AND

2. The agreement or action is accepted by both the ILA and port operators

The market will resolve NO if:

• No agreement is reached

• An agreement is reached but still allows for some automation

• The agreement is rejected by either party

Considerations

• While Trump has expressed strong support for the ILA's position, the final outcome depends on negotiations between multiple parties

• Port operators view automation as crucial for maintaining competitiveness

• Previous port labor negotiations have often extended beyond initial deadlines

• Trump's influence, while significant, may be limited in private sector negotiations

• The resolution of this dispute may be affected by broader economic and political factors beyond Trump's control