This market is overpriced. Remember that the monthly delta in average probabilities should reflect that Jimmy is manifolds equivalent to us govt bonds 😅

https://twitter.com/timheidecker/status/1853286046207029429

arb https://manifold.markets/Joshua/universal-death-market-which-public

The dream

The Jimmy Reserve

This man is saying he will vote for the Kamala? Look who he is paling around with lately! Making sense he would be vote this way, no? It is disgusting to see it!!!

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAosyG4BJAb/?igsh=eXR4emExOGlmZmdr

theta

Vote for Jimmy! Underrated at 16%!

Empirically, there is a more than 90-95% chance that he does.

@MrBrien Based on what?

@JoeBoyle he's 100, has been in hospice for 6+ months. I believe he is currently cancer free though. I at at like 50-50 myself

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/09/30/cancer-treatment-extended-jimmy-carter-life/75309888007/

@PeterAngel *I'm at

@GazDownright share your poll on this on dude, it will be up the whole year

@JCDM

There hasn’t been any meaningful news since the ‘one year in hospice’ thing and even then, I take the last actual piece of news to have been his wife’s funeral. I suspect he’s basically on (figurative) life support . It’s only a question of when his son, whose Christian faith seems strong, agrees to pull the (figurative) plug.

@NicoDelon there aren't any "plugs" in hospice. The point of hospice is providing only care that makes the dying person comfortable.

@kenmichaels It’s a metaphorical plug (comment edited). There are decisions to make and at this point I doubt they’re Jimmy’s to make.

Arb opportunity https://manifold.markets/strutheo/who-will-go-to-heaven-by-eoy-2025-a?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Derivative of Jimmy markets - rough proxy for their volume and volatility if you vote for him here: