Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025?
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70
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resolved Sep 29
Resolved
YES

Inspired by this market.

If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.

IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the de facto military and one of the most prominent political parties in Lebanon.

Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action.

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Yesterday, Israel dropped 83 1 ton bombs on the Hezbollah HQ in Lebanon's capital, Beirut. The HQ happened to be located below civilian buildings, which were leveled.

In doing so Israel killed the leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah, as well as most of the other high command of the organization.

The HQ was just one of the many targets hit in Beirut in this attack and many that followed after it.

This is incontrovertibly "wartime military action".

@JCDM Please resolve or clarify

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 90% order

[deleted]

bought Ṁ50 NO

What's "wartime military action"? Usually launching several hundred missiles would qualify

predicted NO

Did you mean to close this on December 31, 2023?

@AaronBreckenridge Thanks for the heads up. Updated it