Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025?
15
119
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2025
43%
chance

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If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.

IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the de facto military and one of the most prominent political parties in Lebanon.

Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action.

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predicts NO

Did you mean to close this on December 31, 2023?

@AaronBreckenridge Thanks for the heads up. Updated it

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