Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
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resolved Nov 6
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NO

The Keys to the White House is a system used to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. It has been correct 9 out of 10 times, with its only failure being predicting that Al Gore would beat George Bush in 2000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

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At what point are you taking Lichtman's prediction for the purpose of market resolution? Now? He's absurdly overconfident in Biden. The day before the election? After the election, when he can post hoc rationalize enough of the subjective keys to whatever result makes his "model" correct?

Can't really bet on this without knowing when you're "locking in" Lichtman's prediction.

He has rationalized after the fact to make his system seem better before - for example, he (incorrectly) predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016, then hastily changed what he said his model was for after Trump won while losing the popular vote.

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

I mean, Al Gore would’ve won if not for the butterfly ballot

opened a Ṁ100,000 NO at 66% order

100k no order!

In Lichtman's latest livestream, he states that there are 4 false keys right now. So a Biden win. (not is final prediction)

He has been right 9 out of 10 times in the past so there is 90% chance he is right this time

@NielS That’s how probability works, surely

@benshindel That's what i think so... But the market doesn't seem to agree. Every elections people end up doubting Allan Lichtman, then he ends up being right again. If you would just look at the track record, nothing else, i would say 90% chance he's going to be right.

opened a Ṁ907 YES at 64% order

i'm just betting that lichtman will reverse engineer a victory to whoever wins ;)

@nikki He says he's waiting until August for a final verdict. It's true one can't get a full picture of the economy and foreign policy events until then, but also, by then polls are a bit more predictive, so seems like a copout.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 65% order

the keys to the white house is, without a doubt, the dumbest election model i have ever seen.

is this the keys with Lichtman’s assessment or the assessment of the market creator, @ItsMe ?

predicted NO

@benshindel Ah I see you’ve already answered below 👍

Midterm gains: False (Democrats lost 22 seats)

No primary contest: Likely true, Biden likely takes the nomination with little challenge

Incumbent: Likely true

No third party: Uncertain, but leaning true nearer election day

Strong ST economy: Leaning false if trend continues, polls show majority are perceiving a recession

Strong LT economy: Likely true given high GDP growth post-COVID recession

Major policy change: Likely false, nothing major yet and Biden faces a Republican House

No social unrest: Leaning true, unrest since the end of the George Floyd riots has persisted but has been much less significant

No scandal: Likely true, no bipartisan agreement on any wrongdoing as of now

No foreign failure: Likely false given the (disliked) Afghanistan withdrawal, unresolved tensions with China and Russia, etc.

Major foreign success: Likely false unless something like a serious blow against Hamas occurs

Charismatic incumbent: Likely false as it was in 2020

Uncharismatic challenger: Likely true with Donald Trump as he was in 2016 and 2020, or any other GOP nominee

I count 6 or so false keys for Democrats right now.

predicted NO

When does Litchman make his prediction? This seems to be primarily a bet on how uncertain the result the presidential election will be at the time he makes his prediction (if this market is higher than the price of the predicted candidate at the time Litchman makes his prediction, you can just buy the predicted candidate instead of this market).

Keys have been debunked awhile ago. Only question is whether Lichtman decides them based on his vibes of who he thinks will win, and how accurate those vibes are. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/

predicted NO

I would say around 8-9 are true now. The keys are missing Biden's age and unpopularity. The economy is actually fine-ish or even good, but b/c of the past inflation, people don't view it as that great. It may get slightly better in the next year (60% chance for me), or get much worse (20% chance; if oil prices rise). Biden's primary isn't looking all that competitive. He's an incumbent. Some chat the the advantages of incumbency are not what they used to be.

Biden's foreign policy blunder in Afghanistan might have partially worn off. Biden is not charismatic. He's also facing an unpopular challenger (Trump) who has been indicted four times. Overall I'd say the fundamentals have Biden up slightly, or predict a close election at least.

@DouglasCampbell Does Israel count as a foreign policy blunder? Ukraine might become one as well if Russia starts advancing again.

@DouglasCampbell I don't think the intelligence blunder in Afghanistan has completely worn off. In the age of targeted influence campaigns people's memories for long past events can be easily "refreshed". Trump's a polarizing character but nobody would call him uncharismatic.

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