Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the percentage of votes received by the winning candidate in the 2025 New York City mayoral general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. The official results, as published by the New York City Board of Elections, will determine the outcome. The winning candidate's vote share will be matched to the appropriate percentage range provided in the market options.

Background

The 2025 New York City mayoral election features several notable candidates:

• Zohran Mamdani: A 33-year-old Democratic Socialist and state assemblymember, Mamdani secured the Democratic nomination by defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary. His campaign focuses on progressive policies such as rent stabilization, free childcare, and affordable housing. (time.com)

• Eric Adams: The incumbent mayor, originally elected as a Democrat in 2021, is seeking re-election as an independent. His tenure has been marked by tough-on-crime policies and handling of the migrant housing crisis. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Curtis Sliwa: Founder of the Guardian Angels and the Republican nominee, Sliwa previously ran for mayor in 2021. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Andrew Cuomo: After losing the Democratic primary, the former governor is continuing his mayoral bid as an independent under the "Fight and Deliver" party. (en.wikipedia.org)

The general election will use a first-past-the-post voting system, where the candidate with the highest number of votes wins. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Given the presence of multiple candidates, the winning vote share may be lower than in a two-candidate race. Historical data indicates that in multi-candidate elections, vote shares can be more evenly distributed, potentially resulting in a winner with a plurality rather than a majority. Traders should consider the impact of the first-past-the-post system in a crowded field when making predictions.