Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, as of January 1, 2035, New York City subway trains on any line continue to operate with conductors on board. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if subway trains operate without conductors by that date. The primary source for verification will be official announcements from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) or reputable news outlets reporting on the operational status of subway conductors.

Background

The New York City subway system has been exploring automation technologies, such as Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC), to modernize its operations. The Canarsie Line (L train) was the first to implement CBTC, allowing for more efficient train operations. Despite these advancements, the MTA has maintained the presence of conductors on most lines. In 2024, the MTA released a $68.4 billion capital plan for 2025-2029, focusing on upgrading infrastructure and rolling stock, but it did not explicitly mention plans to eliminate conductors. Additionally, legislative efforts, such as New York State Assembly Bill A4873 introduced in 2025, aim to mandate the presence of conductors on all subway trains, citing safety and security concerns.

Considerations

While automation offers potential cost savings and operational efficiencies, the transition to conductor-less trains involves significant technological, regulatory, and labor considerations. The strong influence of labor unions and legislative actions may impact the timeline and feasibility of such changes. Traders should monitor MTA announcements, legislative developments, and technological advancements in subway automation to inform their predictions.