Will the US government shutdown last longer than 21 days
27
199
510
resolved Dec 26
Resolved
NO

If the shutdown does not occur, this question resolves N/A

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@sundry I did not. So I will close with a NO

@IsaacKohane Seems fair. Cool market!

@sundry I'd appreciate advice. I intended this to specify 2023 but I did not. However it can't be reasonably allowed to mean any time in the future so I am tending to go for NO but I am sympathetic to the N/A perspective. Any thoughts?

@IsaacKohane I’m not sure what you mean. Are you saying that you intended this to refer to any time in December? In that case, you can reopen the market for more trading.

@IsaacKohane Can this resolve by now?

predicted NO

This should resolve N/A.

predicted NO

@zQ4Z82W No, there’s still a chance for a shutdown to occur in November or December

predicted NO

The market description says, "If the shutdown does not occur, this question resolves N/A", implying that this was about the shutdown that was averted yesterday. It doesn't say anything about, "Conditioned on a shutdown happening in 2023, will it last longer than 21 days." It also doesn't say "Will the next shutdown last longer than 21 days".

predicted NO

@zQ4Z82W The bill that was passed is a 45-day stopgap “continuing resolution”. If a gov shutdown occurs at the end of that, it is still the “same” shutdown, so to speak. If the actual appropriations bill had passed, then that would mean there is no shutdown this cycle.

predicted NO

@BenjaminShindel However, the close date for this market is Oct 31st. @IsaacKohane you should probably either extend that or clarify when/how you will resolve this market

predicted NO

@IsaacKohane Can you clarify the resolution criteria?

@BenjaminShindel Persuasive arguments. Will extend to last week in December.